“The Charlotte King Effect – Real or Imagined?” (WATTS) Scientific / Statistical analysis (Date: 07-17-2024)
CATEGORY: Science / News: Investigative Reporting ///
PING BACK Mirror 1: https://GordonWatts.com/NewsReport_TheCharlotteKingEffect.html
PING BACK Mirror 2: https://GordonWayneWatts.com/NewsReport_TheCharlotteKingEffect.html
TITLE: “The Charlotte King Effect – Real or Imagined?”
SUBTITLE: “Does earthquake, volcano, & solar weather researcher, Charlotte King, have an ability to sense LF (low frequency), VLF (very low frequency), and ULF (ultra low frequency) sound and EMF / Radio waves, and fluctuations in earth's geomagnetic field to detect earthquakes and other phenomena?”
By Gordon Wayne Watts, Editor-in-Chief, THE REGISTER (Plant City, FL), Wednesday, 17 June 2024
National Director, CONTRACT WITH AMERICA: PART II®TM Registered Trademark
Author: Gordon Wayne Watts, A.S. United Electronics Institute, Valedictorian
B.S. The Florida State University, Biological & Chemical Sciences, Double major with honours
Cite: https://GordonWatts.com/education/ or https://GordonWayneWatts.com/education/
* https://ContractWithAmerica2.com/#staff
* https://Archive.vn/laznT#staff
* https://Web.Archive.org/web/20240520235246/https://contractwithamerica2.com/#staff
First published: Wed., 17 June 2024 (The Register) https://GordonWatts.com / https://GordonWayneWatts.com
Link 1: https://GordonWatts.com/NewsReport_TheCharlotteKingEffect.pdf (PDF format here)
Link 2: https://GordonWayneWatts.com/NewsReport_TheCharlotteKingEffect.pdf (PDF format here)
RELATED Link (Official) https://Academia.edu/40529432/WATTS_SolarFlarePAPER
RELATED Mirror 1: https://GordonWatts.com/SolarFlarePAPER.pdf (Pub.10-2-2019; Last updated 10-5-2019)
RELATED Mirror 2: https://GordonWayneWatts.com/SolarFlarePAPER.pdf (Version 2.0)
Abstract
Earthquake researcher, Charlotte King, has been featured in many news reports and studied extensively by the scientific community, and is most notably famous for her accurate prediction of the famous Mount St. Helen's eruption, in SW WASHINGTON STATE, which erupted at 8:32 A.M., on May 18, 1980, and taking the lives of 57 people. Subsequent news coverage of King reports that “Charlotte King's first claim to fame is that she predicted the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helen's with 12 minutes.” Source: “Fun With Predictions: The Bryant Park Project,” by Laura Conaway, NPR, 03 January 2008, 1:26 PM (ET),
LINK: https://www.NPR.org/sections/bryantpark/2008/01/fun_with_predictions.html
Archived: https://Archive.ph/dC8oO
And: https://Web.Archive.org/web/20240602112034/https://www.npr.org/sections/bryantpark/2008/01/fun_with_predictions.html We find that statistical analyses support her claims: When all 4 data points were used, there was only a 0.28805353%, or less than one percent, chance of her being able to accurately predict all 4 quakes within the time-frame in question. When we eliminated one “questionable” state point (where we believed she made the prediction before the quake, but were unable to verify it), there was still only a 0.94867778% chance she could make all 3 predictions correctly, and the odds, being far under the standard five (5%) percent threshold for statistical significance, imply that King's claims are not by chance and that there is a correlation. Moreover, based on recent research into this phenomenon, we propose a mechanism for causation: The science backs up her claims that she
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“The Charlotte King Effect – Real or Imagined?” (WATTS) Scientific / Statistical analysis (Date: 07-17-2024)
can sense these things. [See scientific research, below.] However, as far as this undersigned investigative reporter knows, King has not been examined in a scientific manner to determine whether her stunning prediction, above, was a genuine ability, as she claims, or merely a “one off.”((**)) So, we have undertaken to examine the matter – both as a purely fascinating scientific endeavor, as well as a potentially life-saving skill that some people claim to have – the ability to “sense” earthquakes, volcanoes, solar flares, CME's (solar coronal mass ejections), and other solar weather phenomenon due to LF sound, geomagnetic, or radio waves. ((**)) The question posed – using statistics – is “what are the odds” that King could get 4 predictions correct given a certain time-frame? If the odds are very low, and she scores 4-for-4, then we may assume that it is “probably” not by chance, and infer a probable (even if not definite) correlation with causation.
Introduction
When King appeared on the “upcoming shows” schedule for the Sunday, May 5, 2024 episode of Coast to Coast: AM (the long-running international overnight call-in program based in Los Angeles, CA, U.S.A.), as reflected here (a 4-hour, live “call in format” show, airing from 10PM Sun.5-5-24 to 2AM, Mon.5-6-24, that is, starting at 1:00 A.M., Monday morning in the Eastern “EST” Time Zone), this reporter contacted her ahead of her appearance to find out what was going on:
LINK: https://www.CoastToCoastAM.com/show/2024-05-05-show/
And: https://Web.Archive.org/web/20240510184745/https://www.coasttocoastam.com/show/2024-05-05-show/
Contemporary to COAST's coverage, we also did science/news coverage via blogging:
LINK-1: https://Twitter.com/Gordon_W_Watts/status/1787138247136612536
LINK-2: https://www.Facebook.com/share/p/k9w5X6vQBhPxQTUd/
OR:
https://www.Facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10225904167295735&id=1380495131&rdid=7ZdrS2326RpTu7vC
Archive-1: https://ContractWithAmerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/CharlotteKingNews_FACEBOOK_blogging.pdf.pdf
Sensing that she may be genuine in her ability, this reporter carefully documented a representative portion of her predictions with time-stamps from no less than four (4) official sources: The Wayback Machine, ARCHIVE TODAY, Facebook, and Twitter (now dba “X”), with at least 3 of these 4 being unable to be edited “after the fact” (Facebook, the exception, does allow an edit function of old wall posts), so as to authenticate the time-stamp as being a prediction **before** the act (the fulfillment or lack thereof), so fellow-researchers can have well-documented proof of whether or not her “predictions” are genuine – in addition to having a “local directory” archive for redundancy purposes, i.e., to be on the safe side. The Facebook data – while not verifiable as much as the other 3 sources – is included for context, as it has earlier news coverage of this, to help readers “get a grasp.”
King's private texts are not published out of professional courtesy, but our news reporting shall stand in as a proxy, as we report what she told this researcher, and cite to official sources to verify / authenticate the time-stamp alleged in our news coverage. The original reporting (done as Facebook “blogging” for ease of getting out a story quickly) was time-stamped as “Sun, 05 May 2024, 11:03am, EST,” and the official archives, denoted above, can verify this as an accurate time stamp regarding the five (5) predictions under review which we cite as “predictions” by King:
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Charlotte felt that a solar filament or halo would be likely within the next 18 -- 48 hours (her text about this was received at 3:46am, EST, Sun. May 05, 2024, by MMS text, and it was close to 11am EST, when we finally published that, e.g., almost 7 hours later).
She also conveyed that, within the next few days, a 5.0 magnitude earthquake was likely in TONGA, FIJI, INDONESIA, and JAPAN, but corrected her prediction to update us with news that a 5.4 magnitude quake had just hit TONGA, and to scratch that from the list of places to watch.
In the news coverage given by COAST (and which is time-stamped as her having been interviewed by show host, George Noory in the 2ND segment, ending at 2AM, CST, that Monday, May 06, 2024), King also is cited with these predictions: “In her recent monitoring, she has sensed possible earthquake activity in California, especially the Imperial Valley and Borrego Springs. Internationally, she believes there will be activity in countries on the African tectonic plate which includes Portugal. To receive notifications of Charlotte's latest posts, sign up at her website.” [[ LINK: https://TheCharlotteKingEffect.com/ ]] CAVEAT: When I asked Charlotte if she meant that she felt quake activity with the next few days in the California or Portugal areas, she indicated that this was a large region being described and didn't mean anything specific or definite in those precise locations in the next few days, so we shall not put these areas under review today but rather keep any eye out for them and the surrounding areas. Her quote on COAST in fact says “she has sensed possible earthquake activity,” not definite, so we are correct to exclude these are possible predictions in our analyses.
SUMMARY: So – in summary – King is documented to have made predictions about solar activity, and the following four (4) “quake” locations: TONGA, FIJI, INDONESIA, JAPAN – five (5) total when including the solar weather prediction.
As there was a lot of solar activity that day, we shall not focus much on solar weather predictions (but come back to it, if circumstances warrant). Regarding the earthquakes predicted, this researcher believes she was candid and truthful regarding her claims that her predictions about TONGA were **before** the fact, but – just to be safe – we hope to analyze this from both angles – using data sets both with and without TONGA – to be complete, but safe. (See below for documentation of the time-stamps regarding these predictions.)
QUESTION: WHAT DOES KING MEAN – EXACTLY – BY “THE NEXT FEW DAYS” ?
So as to “quantify” what King meant by “the next few days,” we reviewed her prior statements on this, and a blog post titled “So This Is How It Works” and dated March 25, 2017, where King writes that her earthquake predictions are “12-72 hours at the outside except Washington State which has always been 4 days [in advance]. But in CA most of the [earthquake] predictions were 12-84 hrs [in advance] and some being up to 5 days lead time.” She explained the variation in timing, saying just before that: “Why I am not sure but it may be due in part to all the volcanic activity which might in some way [have] dampened the signals I was picking up on.” [text in brackets indicates it was added for clarity, and not in the original quote.] Her comments about “several days in advance” in this blog entry, regarding 1980's quakes in WA state shall be ignored, for statistical purposes, as they are not precise regarding exact “lead time,” but are included for context—and to corroborate her other claims which are similar but more quantifiable as to “how many” might “several days” be.
https://TheCharlotteKingEffect.com/2017/03/
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In another blog post, titled “St. Helen's 40 Years Ago Today” and dated May 18, 2020, King clarifies that, as a general rule, “when the mountain moved, I felt it.. usually 4 days in advance of larger 3.0 [magnitude] or greater [earthquake] events,” and adds that, for some smaller quakes, she felt them in “as they happened, in real time.”
https://TheCharlotteKingEffect.com/2020/05/18/st-helens-40-years-ago-today/
ANSWER: Three (3) days for all locations except WA & CA, where we use four (4) days' lead time
So, taking these comments in context with what this researcher recalls her having said in both public statements and private communications, we shall take “a few days” of notice to mean 3 days (12-72 hours) for all locations except Washington State – and California, where we shall also use 4 days' notice (up to 12-84 hours, e.g., 0.5 to 3.5 days, but some cases of 5-day lead time, so we take an intermediate figure of 4 days' notice).
Materials & Methods
Next, we turn to the published earthquake reporting to find out how, statistically, likely a quake is in any given location under review, and, for this, we examined four (4) official sources: (Opens in new window)
U.S. Geological Survey – official government earthquake data from its online Earthquake Catalog: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-25.79989,-131.13281&extent=73.32786,-58.71094&map=false
The “LastQuake” website (https://m.emsc.eu/) – which King reports is her personal favourite, e.g., https://www.emsc-csem.org and https://m.emsc.eu/
Earthquake Track (https://EarthquakeTrack.com/) (Didn't have data compiled for convenient download)
The “AllQuakes” website (https://AllQuakes.com/) The search was limited to 5.0 or greater quakes
Not used in this review, but see also: https://www.VolcanoDiscovery.com/earthquakes/today.html
Of these four quake data websites, we were able to gather useful data from three: When we examined EarthquakeTrack.com, we found that there was no complied page for download over an extended time period, which would have forced us to visit tens – perhaps hundreds – of pages individually, so we skipped that one—except for possibly data on the one day we visited the site, shown on the landing page we saved.
Here is the data (sources cited in references, below) we gleaned concerning the statistical probabilities of any of the four (4) locations King named being hit with a 5.0 Magnitude – or greater – quake:
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U.S. Geological Survey – Website Retrieved on Saturday, 11 May 2024, 11:57 A.M. (EST) – and copied/pasted into text editor because web print did not display more than 1—2 pages. We used the following search parameters: Minimum 4.0 Magnitude quake from time: 2024-02-04 00:00:00 (UTC) to 2024-05-11 23:59:59 (UTC), e.g., a little over 3 months.
Last Quake – Retrieved on Saturday, 11 May 2024, 11:44 A.M. (EST), from https://m.emsc.eu/#full and copied/pasted into text editor because web print did not display more than 1—2 pages. This search was set to “All Earthquakes” and appears to go back about one week in time.
EarthquakeTrack.com – Retrieved and PDF printed at 1216pm (EST), Sat.11 May 2024, and which has only about one (1) day's worth of quake data.
AllQuakes.com – Retrieved and PDF printed at 1210pm (EST), Sat11May2024. This search was done for “Past earthquakes worldwide: 2024,” which is from January 2024 until online data retrieval date of Saturday, 5/11/2024. As mentioned above, this search was filtered “by magnitude” to “5.0+” Magnitude quakes, thus limiting search results—helpful as the period was several months long.
Time-span under review: Using all sources, we review the statistical probabilities for a quake on any given day, and at a given area, from January 01, 2024 to May 11, 2024, that is, for a time period of one hundred thirty-two (132) days. (MATH: 31+29+31+30+11 = 132.)
Reviewing the past history of quakes in selected locations under review, we can directly determine from the data the probabilities of a 5.0 or greater earthquake at a given location, as shown below. (We “slightly” fudge on about one or two of the locations, which was a 4.8 or 4.9 or similar, to give Charlotte the benefit of the doubt, as this is such a small deviation from her 5.0 prediction as to – we believe – be within the margins of error, since it surely was “felt” as a 5.0 in close-by locations other than that which was reported – but report this as such for transparency and academic honesty in reporting.) Scratch that: Since a 4.8 in one area IS INDEED a 5.0 in another close-by area, we will provisionally award here full credit here. Your mileage may vary, but we must be complete and address all analyses – and run it both ways to be safe.
DATA POINTS:
1 – TONGA
2 – FIJI
3 – INDONESIA
4 – JAPAN
ANALYSES – from all 4 sources combined:
1 – TONGA
From USGS.gov:
** 4.1, 262 km WNW of Houma, Tonga, 2024-02-04 18:06:49 (UTC-05:00), 561.2 km
** 4.5, 201 km WNW of Fangale’ounga, Tonga, 2024-02-04 04:57:39 (UTC-05:00), 169.4 km
** 5.1, 92 km NNW of Neiafu, Tonga, 2024-02-03 23:46:18 (UTC-05:00), 83.4 km
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From LastQuake:
** 4.8 TONGA, “yesterday” (eg, 5/10/24)
** 4.6 TONGA, “5 days ago” (eg, 5/6/24)
** 5.7 TONGA, “6 days ago” (eg, 5/5/24)
** 4.5 TONGA, “6 days ago” (eg, 5/5/24)
** 4.5 TONGA, “6 days ago” (eg, 5/5/24) (duplicate entry: Copy-edit Error)
From EarthquakeTrack:
** “1 day ago, 4.8 magnitude, 10 km depth, Pangai, Ha‘apai, Tonga” (eg, 5/10/24)
From AllQuakes:
** May 5, 08:13 pm (GMT +13), 6 days ago, 5.7, 10 km
167 km WNW of Pangai, Tonga
** Apr 24, 06:53 pm (GMT +13), 2 weeks ago, 5.4, 226 km
South Pacific Ocean, 117 km northwest of Tofua Island, Ha`apai, Tonga
** Apr 6, 09:32 am (Tongatapu), 5 weeks ago, 5.6, 119 km
** Mar 31, 04:01 pm (GMT +13), 6 weeks ago, 5.5, 10 km
163 km NNW of Houma, Tonga
South Pacific Ocean, 68 km northwest of Neiafu, Vava'u, Tonga
** Mar 26, 10:37 pm (GMT +13), 7 weeks ago, 5.4, 10 km
108 km SSE of Pangai, Tonga
** Feb 22, 03:07 am (GMT +13), 11 weeks ago, 5.4, 291 km
165 km WNW of Houma, Tonga
** Feb 18, 08:29 pm (GMT +13), 12 weeks ago, 5.6, 222 km
88 km W of Hihifo, Tonga
** Feb 18, 07:06 pm (GMT +13), 12 weeks ago, 5.5, 10 km
177 km WNW of Hihifo, Tonga
** Jan 31, 11:49 pm (GMT +13), 14 weeks ago, 5.8, 176 km
264 km SW of Houma, Tonga
** Jan 28, 05:13 am (GMT +13), 15 weeks ago, 5.4, 10 km
South Pacific Ocean, 157 km northeast of Neiafu, Vava'u, Tonga
** Jan 19, 11:12 am (GMT +13), 16 weeks ago, 6.4, 209 km
114 Km WSW of Neiafu, Tonga, 6 reports
** Jan 18, 05:50 pm (GMT +13), 16 weeks ago, 5.8, 155 km
116 km WSW of Houma, Tonga 2 reports
** Jan 13, 11:32 am (GMT +13), 17 weeks ago, 5.4, 10 km
162 km SSW of ‘Ohonua, Tonga
** Jan 9, 08:53 pm (GMT +13), 18 weeks ago, 5.6, 10 km
South Pacific Ocean, 152 km northeast of Middelburg Island, Eua, Tonga
** Jan 4, 05:56 pm (GMT +13), 18 weeks ago, 5.7, 197 km
125 km W of Houma, Tonga
Analysis for TONGA: We see that AllQuakes reports fifteen (15) quakes during this time, but only fourteen (14) days experienced quakes, as Feb. 18, 2025 had 2 quakes of 5.0 or greater. The 5/5/24 entry from LastQuake was repeated in AllQuakes, and thus not counted. But the USGS.gov quake on 2024-02-03 was unique, meaning
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“The Charlotte King Effect – Real or Imagined?” (WATTS) Scientific / Statistical analysis (Date: 07-17-2024)
there were fifteen (15) days with 5.0 or greater quakes for TONGA during the 132-day period under review, implying a 15/132 chance of a quake on any given day for TONGA, or an 11.363636% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit TONGA: it is a high-risk area.
2 – FIJI
From USGS.gov:
** 4.2, 288 km E of Levuka, Fiji, 2024-02-05 04:12:03 (UTC-05:00), 625.3 km
** 4.1, 211 km E of Levuka, Fiji, 2024-02-05 03:46:46 (UTC-05:00), 521.1 km
** 4.2, Fiji region, 2024-02-04 05:06:37 (UTC-05:00), 566.4 km
From LastQuake:
** 5.0 FIJI REGION, “3 hr 52 min ago” (eg, 5/11/24)
** 4.5 FIJI REGION, “yesterday” (eg, 5/10/24)
** 4.6 FIJI REGION, “yesterday” (eg, 5/10/24)
** 4.5 SOUTH OF FIJI ISLANDS, “yesterday” (eg, 5/10/24)
** 4.7 FIJI REGION, “3 days ago” (eg, 5/8/24)
** 4.3 FIJI REGION, “4 days ago” (eg, 5/7/24)
From EarthquakeTrack:
** “1 day ago, 4.5 magnitude, 587 km depth, South Of Fiji Islands” (eg, 5/10/24)
From AllQuakes:
** Apr 18, 10:31 am (GMT +13), 3 weeks ago, 5.4, 390 km
South Pacific Ocean, 352 km south of Lakeba Island, Eastern, Fiji
** Apr 13, 12:10 pm (GMT +12), 4 weeks ago, 5.4, 21 km
Fiji: New Zealand
** Mar 10, 12:01 am (Fiji), 9 weeks ago, 5.4, 593 km
South Pacific Ocean, 47 km northeast of Lakeba Island, Eastern, Fiji
** Mar 2, 12:26 pm (GMT +12), 10 weeks ago, 5.8, 546 km
South Pacific Ocean, 266 km south of Lakeba Island, Eastern, Fiji
Analysis for FIJI: Here, there were four (4) days where 5.0+ quakes were reported by AllQuakes, but the 5/11/2024 entry from LastQuake is unique (not listed by AllQuakes for this time period), so there were five (5) days of 5.0+ Magnitude quakes for FIHI during the 132-day period under review, implying a 5/132 chance of a quake on any given day for FIJI, or a paltry 3.787879% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit FIJI: it is, thus, a low risk region.
3 – INDONESIA
From USGS.gov:
** 4.9, 174 km SSW of Abepura, Indonesia, 2024-02-05 09:05:23 (UTC-05:00), 86.6 km
** 4.9, 86 km SSW of Modisi, Indonesia, 2024-02-05 07:38:48 (UTC-05:00), 51.3 km
** 4.7, 197 km W of Gorontalo, Indonesia, 2024-02-05 05:25:17 (UTC-05:00), 85.0 km
** 4.6, 146 km WNW of Tobelo, Indonesia, 2024-02-05 02:51:52 (UTC-05:00), 37.1 km
** 5.0, 99 km E of Tuapejat, Indonesia, 2024-02-04 19:52:22 (UTC-05:00), 51.2 km
** 4.7, 25 km NE of Sibolga, Indonesia, 2024-02-04 11:32:25 (UTC-05:00), 121.9 km
** 4.1, 13 km E of Atambua, Indonesia, 2024-02-04 06:05:30 (UTC-05:00), 47.9 km
** 4.1, 83 km W of Gunungsitoli, Indonesia, 2024-02-04 02:32:46 (UTC-05:00), 10.0 km
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From LastQuake:
** (113 entries of any magnitude, not listed separately for brevity—check original page to verify / document)
** Narrow search for 5.0 Magnitude or greater—for brevity, and to test King's predictive accuracies:
** 5.1 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA, “yesterday” (eg, 5/10/24)
** 5.6 SERAM, INDONESIA, “5 days ago” (eg, 5/6/24)
** 6.1 SERAM, INDONESIA, “5 days ago” (eg, 5/6/24)
From EarthquakeTrack:
** “The biggest earthquakes: this week [eg, 5/4/24 – 5/11/24]: [include] 6.2 in Amahai, Maluku, Indonesia”
** 13 hours ago, 4.9 magnitude, 81 km depth, Ternate, Maluku Utara, Indonesia” (eg, 5/11/24)
** 20 hours ago, 4.9 magnitude, 61 km depth, Kencong, East Java, Indonesia” (eg, 5/11/24)
** 1 day ago, 5.1 magnitude, 62 km depth, Bengkulu, Bengkulu, Indonesia” (eg, 5/10/24)
** 1 day ago, 4.8 magnitude, 10 km depth, South Of Java, Indonesia” (eg, 5/10/24)
From AllQuakes:
** From January 01, 2024 – May 11, 2024, AllQuakes reports a total of eighteen (18) quakes with a 5.0 Magnitude or greater (not listed here for brevity – check original data sheet to verify) – but as some days had more than one quake, this shall be counted as only “one” day a 5.0+ quake occurred, and the only days in the span with 5.0+ quakes were: 5/6, 4/27, 4/9, 4/8, 4/3, 3/22, 3/14, 3/4, 2/25, 2/23, 1/27, 1/25. and 1/23, a total of thirteen (13) days during that time span.
Analysis for INDONESIA: AllQuakes – which has the largest number of days with 5.0+ quakes reported – reports a total of thirteen (13) days, but there was data besides that mentioned here: USGS.gov's entry on 2024-02-04 is not listed on AllQuakes for this period, nor is the 5/10/2024 entry from LastQuake. (But their two 5/6/24 entries are redundant and listed at AllQuakes, and are thus ignored.) The 5/10/2024 entry from EarthquakeTrack is redundant to those above—and thus also ignored. The 6.2 quake mentioned as from 5/4/24 to 5/11/24 is probably the same as one of the following from AllQuakes, probably one of these two entries—probably the 6.1 Magnitude quake on May 6, 2024, shown below—as 6.2 is close to 6.1:
May 6, 05:37 am (Jayapura) 6 days ago, 5.8, 14 km, Ceram Sea, Maluku, 97 km southwest of Pulau Tantaruga Island, Indonesia
May 6, 03:33 am (GMT +9), 6 days ago, 6.1, 45 km, Ceram Sea, Maluku, 97 km southwest of Pulau Tantaruga Island, Indonesia
Thus, this data point is redundant, as well, and can be ignored. So, the 13 from AllQuakes plus the 2 other unique days, results in fifteen (15) days of 5.0+ Magnitude quakes for FIHI during the 132-day period under review, implying a 15/132 chance of a quake on any given day for INDONESIA, or – like TONGA above – an 11.363636% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit INDONESIA: it is also a high-risk area.
4 – JAPAN
From USGS.gov:
** 5.0, 43 km E of Nishinoomote, Japan, 2024-02-05 03:30:50 (UTC-05:00), 38.3 km
** 4.2, 26 km NE of Shizunai-furukawachō, Japan, 2024-02-04 14:04:07 (UTC-05:00), 111.5 km
** 4.4, 115 km S of Yudomari, Japan, 2024-02-04 03:27:35 (UTC-05:00), 37.7 km
** 4.1, 10 km S of Futtsu, Japan, 2024-02-04 01:01:04 (UTC-05:00), 90.7 km
** 4.4, Izu Islands, Japan region, 2024-02-03 21:01:32 (UTC-05:00), 10.0 km
From LastQuake:
** (15 entries of any magnitude, not listed separately for brevity—check original page to verify / document)
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** Narrow search for 5.0 Magnitude or greater—for brevity, and to test King's predictive accuracies:
** 5.0 HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION, “14 hr 55 min ago” (eg, 5/11/24)
From EarthquakeTrack:
** “The biggest earthquakes: this month [eg, 4/12/24 – 5/11/24]: [include]: 6.5 in Bonin Islands, Japan”
** 15 hours ago, 5.0 magnitude, 10 km depth, Kushiro, Hokkaido, Japan (eg, 5/11/24)
** 1 day ago, 4.3 magnitude, 66 km depth, Obihiro, Hokkaido, Japan (eg, 5/10/24)
From AllQuakes:
** From January 01, 2024 – May 11, 2024, AllQuakes reports a total of nineteen (19) quakes with a 5.0 Magnitude or greater (not listed here for brevity – check original data sheet to verify) – but as some days had more than one quake, this shall be counted as only “one” day a 5.0+ quake occurred, and the only days in the span with 5.0+ quakes were: 4/27, 4/24, 4/17, 4/16, 4/6, 4/4, 4/2, 3/15, 1/26, 1/9, 1/2, and 1/1, a total of twelve (12) days during that time span.
Analysis for JAPAN: AllQuakes – which has the largest number of days with 5.0+ quakes reported – reports a total of twelve (12) days, but there was data besides that mentioned here: The USGS.gov website reports a 5.0 quake on 2024-02-05, which is not listed here. Also, the 5.0 magnitude quake on 5/11/2024 from LastQuake isn't mention here. But, the 5/11/2024 entry from EarthquakeTrack is redundant to that and ignored. The 6.5 entry for 4/27/2024 on AllQuakes is probably the same one referred to in EarthquakeTrack, and thus ignored, too. So, a total of fourteen (14) unique days are found for 5.0 or greater quakes in JAPAN, implying a 14/132 chance of a quake on any given day for JAPAN, or a 10.606061% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit JAPAN: it is also a fairly high-risk area.
CONCLUSION
Grading Charlotte King – how did she do? King had predicted 5.0 or greater earthquakes in Tonga, Japan, Fiji, & Indonesia, in the early morning hours of Sunday, May 05, 2024, and as documented by our prior news reporting.
Her predictions about Tonga, Indonesia, and later Japan, came to pass. She missed the mark on Fiji. Wait a second, maybe she didn't – we're reviewing more current quake data than we downloaded last time, before several days elapsed. Also, it was not much of a prediction that there might by a solar filament or similar, in the opinion of this undersigned solar weather researcher; thus, since there was so much solar activity, that data set and the solar weather shall be excluded from our survey:
TONGA was hit very shortly after she sensed it, with a 5.4 quake, in the early morning. It was hit again, with a 4.6 magnitude quake, much later that afternoon, so this is close enough that we will give it to her, even though this reporter remembers her saying she hadn't notified us quite in time. Kyushu, JAPAN was hit with a 4.8, on 2024-05-06 (06:26:24), at 30.104 Latitude, 131.028 Longitude, 28km deep, at 4.8 Magnitude, in KYUSHU, JAPAN, and a 2ND time on 2024-05-08 19:34:44, 33.047 Latitude, 131.447 Longitude, at 100km deep, with a 4.5 magnitude—slightly less than the 5.0 prediction, but this was a 2ND hit, and added to her credibility. This website also records, for FIJI, that on 2024-05-08 00:09:45, -20.348 Latitude, -176.019 Longitude, 221 km deep, for a 4.7 Magnitude quake in the “FIJI REGION.” Again, some likely felt a 5.0 magnitude in places, so we will give King provisional credit. Lastly, the 6.2 quake reported by this page for INDONESIA (“2024-05-05, 18:33:11, -3.357 [Latitude], 130.893 [Longitude], 13 [km depth], 6.1 [Magnitude, and in:] SERAM, INDONESIA,” was widely reported elsewhere due to its great magnitude.
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Predictions time-stamped AT “11:12 AM · May 5, 2024 · 119, Views”
https://Twitter.com/Gordon_W_Watts/status/1787138247136612536
https://Archive.ph/gmoRx (Or: “3:12 PM · May 5, 2024 · 119 Views” in the UTC Time Zone)
https://Web.Archive.org/web/20240602125900/https://archive.ph/gmoRx
STANDARD: Earlier, we inferred this definition as to time-span from King's writings as follows: “ we shall take “a few days” of notice to mean 3 days (12-72 hours) for all locations except Washington State – and California...”
FACTS: Recalling her predictions to have been sent to me right after the end of the COAST program, which went up until 5:00 A.M. (EST), Tonga was hit twice right after her predictions, Japan was hit the next day and again right after 3 days had elapsed (moot as she had a prediction beforehand, but included for context as it was so close to 3 days), Fiji was hit just before the 3-day time-window, and Indonesia was pummeled repeatedly within the 3-day window with very strong quakes, so we award King a perfect 4 of 4 score for accuracy in predictions.
ANALYSIS: We now turn to statistical analyses to ask “what are the odds” that her predictions were “just by chance?”
Analysis for TONGA: We see a 11.363636% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit TONGA: it is a high-risk area.
Analysis for FIJI: There is a paltry 3.787879% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit FIJI: it is, thus, a low risk region.
Analysis for INDONESIA: We have– like TONGA above – an 11.363636% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit INDONESIA: it is also a high-risk area.
Analysis for JAPAN: Lastly, there is, for any given day, a 10.606061% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit JAPAN: it is also a fairly high-risk area.
But what about for a “3-day” period? Editor's Note: Eight (8) significant figures is used to be safe.
ANSWER: We must re-write the above statistical analyses to ask the probability a 5.0+ magnitude quake WON'T hit on any given day, and then use the “product rule” to ask how likely it is that there won't be a quake in a given 3-day period.
Analysis for TONGA: We see a 11.363636% chance on any given day – thus an 88.636363% chance a 5.0+ quake WON'T hit on any given day, or a 0.88636363 chance of no quake on a given day, and – per the product rule – the chances of all 3 days being quake-free are (0.88636363) x (0.88636363) x (0.88636363) = 0.69636315 or a 69.636315% chance of no quakes in all 3 days. So, what are the odds that we DO have a quake in at least one of those 3 days? By subtraction, we infer a 30.363685% chance of a 5.0+ quake for TONGA in that 3-day period.
Analysis for FIJI: There is a paltry 3.787879% chance on any given day – thus a 96.212121% chance a 5.0+
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“The Charlotte King Effect – Real or Imagined?” (WATTS) Scientific / Statistical analysis (Date: 07-17-2024)
quake WON'T hit on any given day, or a 0.96212121 chance of no quake on a given day, and – per the product rule – the chances of all 3 days being quake-free are (0.96212121) x (0.96212121) x (0.96212121) = 0.890613690 or an 89.0613690% chance of no quakes in all 3 days. So, what are the odds that we DO have a quake in at least one of those 3 days? By subtraction, we infer a 10.938631% chance of a 5.0+ quake for FIJI in that 3-day period.
Analysis for INDONESIA: We have– like TONGA above – an 11.363636% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit INDONESIA: it is also a high-risk area. Thus, like Tonga, we have an 88.636363% chance a quake WON'T hit on any given day, or a 0.88636363 chance of no quake on a given day, and – per the product rule – the chances of all 3 days being quake-free are (0.88636363) x (0.88636363) x (0.88636363) = 0.69636315 or a 69.636315% chance of no quakes in all 3 days. So, what are the odds that we DO have a quake in at least one of those 3 days? By subtraction, we infer a 30.363685% chance of a 5.0+ quake for INDONESIA in that 3-day period.
Analysis for JAPAN: Lastly, there is, a 10.606061% chance on any given day a 5.0+ quake will hit JAPAN – another high risk quake area – for any given day, thus we have an 89.393939% chance a 5.0+ quake WON'T hit on any given day, or a 0.89393939 chance of no quake on a given day, and – per the product rule – the chances of all 3 days being quake-free are (0.89393939) x (0.89393939) x (0.89393939) = 0.71437167 or a 71.437167% chance of no quakes in all 3 days. So, what are the odds that we DO have a quake in at least one of those 3 days? By subtraction, we infer a 28.562833% chance of a 5.0+ quake for JAPAN in that 3-day period.
Preliminary Analyses: First, we note that the chances King would be able to predict a quake in a narrow 3-day window to be “pretty slim” for any given location, basically meaning King would only be right “by chance” about ten (10%) percent to thirty-one (31%) percent of the time (depending on the location). However, King was right in all four (4) predictions, an even more impressive feat. So, we ask statistics “what are the odds” that King would be right in all four (4) predictions “just by chance?” INTUITIVELY, we know it to be “less likely,” and thus we are correct to once again invoke the “product rule”:
Odds of “just by chance” = (30.363685%) x (10.938631%) x (30.363685%) x (28.562833%)
Converting to decimal to perform calculation: Odds of “just by chance” = (0.30363685) x (0.10938631) x (0.30363685) x (0.28562833) = 0.0028805353 = 0.28805353% or less than one (1%) percent.
What are the odds that King was right “just by chance” all 4 times?
ANSWER: Zero point two eight eight or so (0.28805353%) percent, far less than one percent.
Editor's Note: Earlier, we saw that TONGA had just experienced a quake, and that this researcher trusted King to be truthful regarding her claims that she “felt” in BEFORE it happened, but as we were unable to document this, we shall run a second (2ND) analysis without that data point and see what odds she had of getting these other 3 predictions right “|just by chance”:
Odds of “just by chance” = (10.938631%) x (30.363685%) x (28.562833%)
Converting to decimal to perform calculation: Odds of “just by chance” = (0.10938631) x (0.30363685) x (0.28562833) = 0.0094867778 = 0.94867778% or still a bit less than one (1%) percent.
What are the odds that King was right “just by chance” just these three (3) times?
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“The Charlotte King Effect – Real or Imagined?” (WATTS) Scientific / Statistical analysis (Date: 07-17-2024)
ANSWER: Zero point nine four eight or so (0.94867778%) percent, still a bit less than one percent.
Conclusion: Four (4) data points above are a rather small data set – and (as we have heard before) – “this bears further research and investigation.” That said – Since this is “far less” than the typical five (5%) percent standard set for statistics when asking if it's unlikely to be “just by chance,” we can infer that King's claims of being able to somehow “sense” LF, VLF, and EMP to sense – in advance – volcanoes, earthquakes, and solar weather – are probably accurate, true, and correct, especially given that (see immediately below) the scientific research gives both evidence of this correlation (between sensing and weather phenomenon) as well as possible mechanism of action (how it is sensed), and especially remembering many animals can sense magnetic direction to navigate.
SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
Scientific research showing that LF and VLF sounds really do, indeed, predict earthquakes and such, even tho these citations don't explicitly say that people cam hear this low:
See eg: https://www.Google.com/search?q=earthquakes+ear+ringing+prediction
“Low-pitched, rumbling rocks could help predict when earthquakes strike: research says,” By Sophie Hares, REUTERS, October 23, 2017 10:47 PM (UTC) ; Small FAIR USE QUOTE: “TEPIC, Mexico (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - Rocks under increasing pressure before earthquakes strike send out low-pitched rumbling sounds that the human ear cannot detect but could be used to predict when a tremor will strike, scientists said on Monday.” [] Researchers recreated powerful earthquake forces in a laboratory and used high-tech algorithms to pick out the acoustic clues amid all the other noise of a pending quake,according to findings published in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal published by the American Geophysical Union.” [Editor's Note: If some people indeed can hear LF or VLF, then this is what they are probably hearing.]
Citations: https://www.Google.com/search?q=earthquakes+ear+ringing+prediction
** https://www.Reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1CS2UK/
** https://Web.Archive.org/web/20240505021424/https://archive.ph/bP1od
See also: "earthquake sensitive people," Author: Eva Dust, D. Knopf geologist Switzerland, January 2008, LINKS:
** https://www.ResearchGate.net/publication/230920660_earthquake_sensitive_people
See also: Sci Rep. 2012; 2: 749. Published online 2012 Oct19. Doi: 10.1038/srep00749, PMCID: PMC3475992
PMID: 23087814, “Disturbances in equilibrium function after major earthquake,” By Motoyasu Honma, et. al., which is quoted in succinct, Fair Use, portion, as finding: “Abstract [] Major earthquakes were followed by a large number of aftershocks and significant outbreaks of dizziness occurred over a large area...Results [] There were no significant differences between the groups in the clinical assessment inventories (all: p> 0.40). Taken together, a greater but symptom-limited disturbance of the equilibrium function in the Quake group was observed compared to the Control group...Discussion [] Although there were no complaints of dizziness and no significant differences in subjective psychological stress between the residents of Tokyo and Osaka prefectures, more severe equilibrium
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dysfunction was detected in the Quake group, indicating that repetitive exposure to aftershocks can evoke equilibrium dysfunction 4 months after a major earthquake.”
Citations: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3475992/
** https://Web.Archive.org/web/20240502132321/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3475992/
DOCUMENTED PROOF with TIME-STAMPS on predictions:
Time-stamped documentation that Charlotte predicted, based on her prior experiences correlating what she feels/hears with what subsequently happens, a predicted 5.0 magnitude earthquake or greater for TONGA, JAPAN, INDONESIA, and FIJI eg, time-stamp and well-documented proof of WHEN she made predictions in private communication with me—as reflected by time-stamped news coverage before the event in most cases:
https://Twitter.com/Gordon_W_Watts/status/1787138247136612536
https://contractwithamerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/TWITTER_Screenshot_20240505-111455_Chrome.jpg
https://contractwithamerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/Fb1_Screenshot_20240505-110416_Facebook.jpg
https://contractwithamerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/Fb1_Screenshot_20240505-110416_Facebook.jpg
https://contractwithamerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/Fb2_Screenshot_20240505-110422_Facebook.jpg
https://contractwithamerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/Fb3_Screenshot_20240505-110428_Facebook.jpg
https://contractwithamerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/Fb3_Screenshot_20240505-110428_Facebook.jpg
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https://contractwithamerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/Fb4_Screenshot_20240505-110441_Facebook.jpg
https://contractwithamerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/?C=M;O=D
https://web.archive.org/web/20240505152212/contractwithamerica2.com/FannyDeregulation/?C=M;O=D
Official Earthquake historical database websites that verify her INDONESIA and JAPAN predictions were BEFORE the event, by several hours actually – EMSC - European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre:
https://www.emsc-csem.org and https://m.emsc.eu/
See also – official sources:
U.S. Geological Survey – official government earthquake data from its online Earthquake Catalog: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-25.79989,-131.13281&extent=73.32786,-58.71094&map=false
The “LastQuake” website (https://m.emsc.eu/) – which King reports is her personal favourite, e.g., https://www.emsc-csem.org and https://m.emsc.eu/
Earthquake Track (https://EarthquakeTrack.com/) (Didn't have data compiled for convenient download)
The “AllQuakes” website (https://AllQuakes.com/) The search was limited to 5.0 or greater quakes
Not used in this review, but see also: https://www.VolcanoDiscovery.com/earthquakes/today.html
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Additional Resources
Advocacy page regarding protection of the power grid and related solar flare phenomena scientific research:
* https://ContractWithAmerica2.com/#grid
* https://GordonWatts.com/n.index.html#grid
* https://GordonWayneWatts.com/n.index.html#grid
* https://Archive.vn/laznT#grid
* https://Web.Archive.org/web/20240520235246/https://contractwithamerica2.com/#grid
News research thereof:
https://GordonWayneWatts.com/#grid
https://Web.Archive.org/web/20240513211014/https://gordonwatts.com#grid
Related paper:
“Probability estimation of a catastrophic Carrington-like geomagnetic storm: Re-evaluated in new light ofupcoming Maunder Minimum and recent decreases in geomagnetic field, after recent studies came to conflictingconclusions; Proposed solutions for citizens and lawmakers,” by Gordon Wayne Watts, A.S. United ElectronicsInstitute, Valedictorian; B.S. The Florida State University, Biological & Chemical Sciences, Double major whonours, ACADEMIA, Updated 10-5-2019
https://Academia.edu/40529432/WATTS_SolarFlarePAPER
https://GordonWatts.com/SolarFlarePAPER.pdf
https://GordonWayneWatts.com/SolarFlarePAPER.pdf
https://ContractWithAmerica2.com/SolarFlarePAPER.pdf
https://Web.Archive.org/web/20201017225700/https://gordonwatts.com/SolarFlarePAPER.pdf
Ethics declarations
I have not received any compensation (financial or otherwise) for my research, and declare no conflicts of interest in this regard. [But I am actively seeking and soliciting financing, should any donors be willing: Please contact me through my websites or social media: https://GordonWatts.com / https://gordonWAYNEwatts.com / https://YouTube.com/GordonWayneWatts / https://Facebook.com/GordonWayneWatts / or via email: Gww1210@gmail.com / Gww1210@AOL.com / Gordon@ContractWithAmerica2.com ]
Rights and permissions
I place my research into the Public Domain, but with the simple attribution requirement that it be left unaltered, and with proper attribution given to me by name (Gordon Wayne Watts) and personal research websites (GordonWatts.com and gordonWAYNEwatts.com – which are not case−sensitive, but stylised this way for appearance purposes only). Anyone referencing my websites my stylise and capitalise them as they see fit, but I'm listing it thus for the convenience of readers for ease of memory. Of course, small “Fair Use” quotes may be used with attribution, as well, as permitted by applicable Federal and International law.
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